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  • Eurozone growth is forecasted to slow in 2019 but Mario Draghi is adamant that there is limited risk of a recession. Supporting his belief is the fiscal stimulus to be provided by Italy and France. Uncharacteristically there is also a serious debate amongst German politicians for a long anticipated fiscal easing package from the country of the “Swabian Housewife”
  • The US Government shutdown has delayed the release of some economic data and the continuation of the shutdown will begin to be the focus on investor concerns. More pertinently, without up to date economic data it will make the Federal Reserve’s job of applying appropriate monetary policy more difficult
  • Following some recent dramatic votes in the House of Commons, the Brexit process continues its torturous journey to completion. Alternative proposals, to Mays failed agreement, will be presented and discussed in the coming weeks with the real possibility of a definitive schism within the Conservative party over this defining issue
  • Chinas Q4 ‘18 GDP of 6.4% yoy met expectations but there will be significant attention on measures taken by authorities to reduce levels of debt whilst maintaining their growth targets for 2019. Long gone are the days of double digit GDP growth (see graph) but lower levels may prove more sustainable